Commentary

Markets finished lower as an early-week rally faded into a late-week selloff. Stocks initially rallied as President Trump said the “war is very complete, pretty much” and oil prices plunged, but the strength reversed as geopolitical tensions escalated and oil rebounded. The S&P 500 fell 2%, with Energy the only sector in positive territory. The Nasdaq had a smaller decline of 1.5% as investors rotated toward tech stocks and mega caps amid the volatility, while the Russell 2000 declined by 3%. Bonds also traded lower as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed Treasury yields higher. Commodities were mixed: oil rebounded toward $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, while gold posted a modest loss despite the market volatility. The week ended with tensions unresolved.

Markets finished lower as an early-week rally faded into a late-week selloff. Stocks initially rallied as President Trump said the “war is very complete, pretty much” and oil prices plunged, but the strength reversed as geopolitical tensions escalated and oil rebounded. The S&P 500 fell 2%, with Energy the only sector in positive territory. The Nasdaq had a smaller decline of 1.5% as investors rotated toward tech stocks and mega caps amid the volatility, while the Russell 2000 declined by 3%. Bonds also traded lower as rising oil prices and inflation concerns pushed Treasury yields higher. Commodities were mixed: oil rebounded toward $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, while gold posted a modest loss despite the market volatility. The week ended with tensions unresolved.

The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.2% in November, its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Large Cap Growth declined 1.8% as AI-related names came under pressure, while Large Cap Value rose 2.7%. The Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones Index both outperformed the S&P 500 as mega-cap tech stocks weighed down the index.

U.S. equities advanced in October, with the S&P 500 Index rising 2.3%, extending its year-to-date gain to 17.5%. Large Cap Growth stocks outperformed, gaining 3.6%, while Large Cap Value added just 0.4%. Major U.S. indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, all marked their sixth consecutive month of gains, with several setting new record highs.

Recent data reinforces a growing divergence between consumer optimism toward financial markets and their caution toward the broader economy. Surveys show that nearly 60% of consumers expect the stock market to climb over the next year, even as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Expectations Index hovers near its lowest levels since the pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis.

Last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut was widely anticipated, but the market reaction underscored just how unusual today’s credit environment has become. Corporate credit spreads, already compressed by historical standards, tightened further, underscoring investor appetite for corporate bonds even as Treasury yields remain elevated.

The S&P 500 gained 2.1% in August, extending its year-to-date return to 10.7%. Led by a 3.2% gain in Large Cap Value stocks, Growth trailed with a more modest 1.2% return. Health Care emerged as the best-performing sector, helping to lift the index, while Utilities and Technology lagged.