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Q2 2025 Quarterly Market Commentary

The first half of 2025 was busy and eventful, but for all that happened, markets ended the first half not far from where they started the year. The S&P 500 returned 6.1% through the end of June after being down by over 15% at one point in April. Long-term interest rates, as measured by the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, ranged from 4.40% to 5.10% but ended the first half of the year right where it started, near 4.80%. If one did not follow the markets closely, it might seem as though little had changed.

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Market Commentary 6/18/25

Volatility returned last week due to trade tensions and a sudden geopolitical shock, even though economic data showed moderating growth and lower inflation.

Investors digested a fragile U.S.–China trade truce, a steady but slowing labor market, and an escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict that sent safe-haven assets soaring. In this commentary, we break down the key developments, from Washington to the Middle East, and discuss what they mean for markets, interest rates, and long-term investors.

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