The third quarter combined solid economic and corporate fundamentals with renewed pressure from oil and interest rates. Oil traded back above $100 per barrel, inflation remained elevated, Treasury yields moved higher, and the Federal Reserve raised rates in September. The S&P 500 traded higher and set a new all-time high as corporate earnings and economic activity remained strong, but beneath the headline gain, market leadership narrowed as smaller companies and rate-sensitive areas lagged. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence continued to play a large role in both the economy and financial markets.
Market Commentary 9/11/25
The S&P 500 gained 2.1% in August, extending its year-to-date return to 10.7%. Led by a 3.2% gain in Large Cap Value stocks, Growth trailed with a more modest 1.2% return. Health Care emerged as the best-performing sector, helping to lift the index, while Utilities and Technology lagged.
Bond markets also generated positive returns in August as Treasury yields declined. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 1.2%, while investment-grade corporates posted 1.0% and high-yield bonds returned +1.1%.
In international markets, a weaker U.S. dollar led to international equity outperformance vs. the U.S. Developed markets returned 4.5%, and emerging markets returned 2.7%, both outperforming U.S. stocks.
Fed Signals a Shift
The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates throughout 2025 as inflation risks, particularly around tariffs, persisted. However, the tone turned when July’s jobs report indicated softer hiring and a rise in unemployment to 4.2%, echoing signs that higher borrowing costs are weighing on growth.
At the Jackson Hole symposium, Chair Powell acknowledged the shifting balance of risks, hinting at a potential rate cut as early as the September 17 meeting. This shift in narrative prompted both stocks and bonds to rally on expectations of a forthcoming policy pivot.
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The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The S&P 500 Index consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the Index proportionate to its market value.
Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network did not assist in the preparation of this report, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The report herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request. PM-03092027-8369781.1.1
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Q3 2026 Market Commentary
The third quarter combined solid economic and corporate fundamentals with renewed pressure from oil and interest rates. Oil traded back above $100 per barrel, inflation remained elevated, Treasury yields moved higher, and the Federal Reserve raised rates in September. The S&P 500 traded higher and set a new all-time high as corporate earnings and economic activity remained strong, but beneath the headline gain, market leadership narrowed as smaller companies and rate-sensitive areas lagged. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence continued to play a large role in both the economy and financial markets.
Market Commentary 9/10/2026
August was another strong month for stocks, but beneath the surface, the financial markets are sending some conflicting signals. Equity markets moved higher during the month, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and equal-weight S&P 500 all reaching new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 also moved back toward its June record.