The first half of 2025 was busy and eventful, but for all that happened, markets ended the first half not far from where they started the year. The S&P 500 returned 6.1% through the end of June after being down by over 15% at one point in April. Long-term interest rates, as measured by the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, ranged from 4.40% to 5.10% but ended the first half of the year right where it started, near 4.80%. If one did not follow the markets closely, it might seem as though little had changed.
Market Commentary 7/31/24
The market continued a recent rotation trade last week, with the Russell 2000 gaining more than 2% while the “Magnificent 7” weighed down the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.
The VIX Index remains well off its summer lows as the rotation leads to increased volatility.
In the bond market, Treasury yields moved slightly higher, causing bonds to trade lower.
During the second quarter, U.S. GDP grew 2.8%, an increase from the first quarter’s reading of 1.4%. The second quarter growth reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending.
Compared to the first quarter, the acceleration in second quarter GDP primarily reflected increases in private inventory investment and consumer spending, partially offset by lower residential fixed investment.
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The S&P 500 Index returned 2.3% in July, pushing its year-to-date return to 8.4%. Large Cap Growth stocks led the gains, increasing by 3.7%, while Large Cap Value increased by just 0.6%.
Q2 2025 Quarterly Market Commentary
The first half of 2025 was busy and eventful, but for all that happened, markets ended the first half not far from where they started the year. The S&P 500 returned 6.1% through the end of June after being down by over 15% at one point in April. Long-term interest rates, as measured by the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, ranged from 4.40% to 5.10% but ended the first half of the year right where it started, near 4.80%. If one did not follow the markets closely, it might seem as though little had changed.