Market Commentary 08/22/23

The U.S. consumer plays an important role in the economy, accounting for almost two-thirds of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The US economy is currently at a critical juncture as consumer spending returns to normal after the pandemic, an unprecedented period where the consumer accumulated approximately $2 trillion in savings and stimulus funds. As consumers have now spent these funds, we are closely watching data to see how this impacts the economy.

A datapoint we follow is the Johnson Redbook Index, which measures the percentage change in sales at stores that have been open for at least one year. This proxy for consumer spending is based on a sample of large U.S. retailers, including about 9,000 department, discount, and chain stores. This index experienced a sharp drop at the onset of the pandemic, followed by a 2021 spending spree fueled by stimulus checks, increased wages, and pent-up savings. However, consumer spending has steadily trended lower since July 2022, with the Johnson Redbook Index experiencing a relatively rare year-over-year decline in July 2023.

Important Disclosures: The report herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company, industry or security. The opinions expressed here reflect the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. The information contained herein is based on technical and/or fundamental market analysis and may be based on data obtained from recognizable statistical services, issuer reports or communications or other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Index returns are not fund returns. An index is unmanages and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Yields are given as of 8/2/2023.Bonds are subject to price and availability. Additional information is available upon request.


Scroll to Top

Thank You for Subscribing!

Watch for our next market commentary coming to your inbox.