June 18, 2025

Volatility returned last week due to trade tensions and a sudden geopolitical shock, even though economic data showed moderating growth and lower inflation.

Investors digested a fragile U.S.–China trade truce, a steady but slowing labor market, and an escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict that sent safe-haven assets soaring. In this commentary, we break down the key developments, from Washington to the Middle East, and discuss what they mean for markets, interest rates, and long-term investors.